A season after going to the Super Bowl, the Oakland Raiders are working on an impressive streak. But it's an unexpected one and doesn't get any publicity outside NFL betting circles.
The Raiders are 0-7 against the spread this season. In fact, they didn't cover a spread in the preseason, either, and were beaten badly as favorites in the Super Bowl.
But Vegas Insider handicapper Mark Franco expects that run of futility to end today when the Raiders, 3-point favorites, visit the Detroit Lions. Oakland will be without quarterback Rich Gannon, last season's Most Valuable Player, as Marques Tuiasosopo gets his first start.
"I don't think the Raiders players have quit yet, and having the bye week should help to give Tuiasosopo some time to click with the offense," Franco said. "I don't think Gannon being out will hurt the Raiders as much as the average person might think."
After consecutive 2-3 weeks, Franco is in third place in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest with a 28-12 record. He used Oakland, Dallas, Jacksonville, St. Louis and the New York Giants as his five plays this week.
Franco (francosportspicks.com) offers his analysis on the 14-game schedule:
• N.Y. Giants (-2 1/2) at N.Y. Jets: In this battle of New York, in New Jersey, the Giants should have the upper hand with a much better offense than what the Jets have even with Chad Pennington back at quarterback. The recent trends for both teams point to the under, but I see this as a game that will go over the total (38 1/2) with the Giants prevailing.
• Jacksonville at Baltimore (-7): I see the Jaguars improving every week and will back them getting the points. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jacksonville win outright with a slight edge going to Jags rookie quarterback Byron Leftwich over Ravens rookie QB Kyle Boller.
• Oakland (-3) at Detroit: The Raiders are only 2-5 straight up but are coming off a bye week after a 17-10 loss to Kansas City. The Lions are one of the four worst teams in the league with Arizona, Chicago and San Diego. Marques Tuiasosopo showed some promise against the Chiefs, and I like Oakland as one of my top plays.
• San Diego at Chicago (-2 1/2): This is a battle of what could be the two worst teams in the NFL. The Bears are coming together a bit as they have covered three of the last four. The Chargers have had a tough week with the wildfires in San Diego County. It's a tough one to call, but I lean toward the Bears and the over (40 1/2).
• Indianapolis at Miami (-3): The Colts will be tough coming off a bye week, and the Dolphins have played better on the road than at home, losing to Houston and New England at Pro Player Stadium. The Colts have been a very solid over play at 14-5-1 on the road since 2001. The over (39) looks like the best bet in this one, with the Colts worth consideration getting the points.
• New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-8 1/2): Both teams have been disappointing this season, but remember the Saints won and covered both games last year against the Super Bowl champs. The Bucs are banged up and only 1-2 against the spread at home. After a bad start, the Saints have covered three of four, and they should be the play.
• Washington at Dallas (-4 1/2): Bill Parcells will have his team ready for this game after being shut out last week at Tampa Bay. The Cowboys are 5-2 straight up and against the spread, and I look for that success to continue against a poor Redskins team. Dallas is doing it with defense, allowing only 83 yards a game on the ground.
• Carolina (-6 1/2) at Houston: This will be a tough test for Texans quarterback Tony Banks as he takes over for injured David Carr. Houston has gone over the
total in six of seven games this season and six of the last nine at home. The Panthers' tough defense should be too much for the Texans. Carolina is 8-3 against the spread on the road with John Fox as coach.
• Cincinnati (-3) at Arizona: The Bengals are rare road favorites, something that happens about once every three years. The Cardinals don't have much of a home-field edge, with a 19-33 spread record since 1997. The Bengals have covered five of their last six, including all three games on the road, under new coach Marvin Lewis. The Bengals are the play here.
• Pittsburgh at Seattle (-4 1/2): The Steelers are 13-4-1 against the spread in their last 18 games as underdogs. The Seahawks haven't covered their last five, and coach Mike Holmgren is only 12-21-2 as a favorite with Seattle. Pittsburgh has gone over the total in 22 of their last 31 games. Over the total (44 1/2) seems like the best play here, and the Seahawks might be worth a look.
• Philadelphia (-4 1/2) at Atlanta: Running back Brian Westbrook is out this week for the Eagles, who have been a big disappointment. But the Falcons are 1-6 straight up and against the spread in the midst of a nightmare season with quarterback Michael Vick injured. Atlanta coach Dan Reeves has benched his whole defensive secondary, and Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb could have his breakout game. The Eagles are on an impressive 26-12 streak against the spread on the road.
• St. Louis (-4 1/2) at San Francisco: The Rams have covered their last five games. The 49ers have big problems, starting with the loss of quarterback Jeff Garcia this week. This line has moved from 2 1/2 points and might go as high as 5. It's a tough call, but I like the Rams to get the road victory.
• Green Bay at Minnesota (-4 1/2): Brett Favre heading into a dome spells doom, as he is just 2-9 against the Vikings in the Metrodome. The total has been bet up to 49 but should be more like 55. Green Bay has a weak defense, and the oddsmakers have not been increasing their totals enough this season. The Packers are 21-10 over the total in their last 31 on the road. Take it to go over and watch a shootout.
• New England at Denver (-2 1/2): The Patriots are a solid 14-7-1 against the line as underdogs since 2001. Bill Belichick is up for Coach of the Year as his team has been banged up but sits in first place in the AFC East. I'll take the Patriots and the points. Denver is a tough place to play, but I don't think the Broncos can get it done with a third-string quarterback.
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The Raiders are 0-7 against the spread this season. In fact, they didn't cover a spread in the preseason, either, and were beaten badly as favorites in the Super Bowl.
But Vegas Insider handicapper Mark Franco expects that run of futility to end today when the Raiders, 3-point favorites, visit the Detroit Lions. Oakland will be without quarterback Rich Gannon, last season's Most Valuable Player, as Marques Tuiasosopo gets his first start.
"I don't think the Raiders players have quit yet, and having the bye week should help to give Tuiasosopo some time to click with the offense," Franco said. "I don't think Gannon being out will hurt the Raiders as much as the average person might think."
After consecutive 2-3 weeks, Franco is in third place in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest with a 28-12 record. He used Oakland, Dallas, Jacksonville, St. Louis and the New York Giants as his five plays this week.
Franco (francosportspicks.com) offers his analysis on the 14-game schedule:
• N.Y. Giants (-2 1/2) at N.Y. Jets: In this battle of New York, in New Jersey, the Giants should have the upper hand with a much better offense than what the Jets have even with Chad Pennington back at quarterback. The recent trends for both teams point to the under, but I see this as a game that will go over the total (38 1/2) with the Giants prevailing.
• Jacksonville at Baltimore (-7): I see the Jaguars improving every week and will back them getting the points. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jacksonville win outright with a slight edge going to Jags rookie quarterback Byron Leftwich over Ravens rookie QB Kyle Boller.
• Oakland (-3) at Detroit: The Raiders are only 2-5 straight up but are coming off a bye week after a 17-10 loss to Kansas City. The Lions are one of the four worst teams in the league with Arizona, Chicago and San Diego. Marques Tuiasosopo showed some promise against the Chiefs, and I like Oakland as one of my top plays.
• San Diego at Chicago (-2 1/2): This is a battle of what could be the two worst teams in the NFL. The Bears are coming together a bit as they have covered three of the last four. The Chargers have had a tough week with the wildfires in San Diego County. It's a tough one to call, but I lean toward the Bears and the over (40 1/2).
• Indianapolis at Miami (-3): The Colts will be tough coming off a bye week, and the Dolphins have played better on the road than at home, losing to Houston and New England at Pro Player Stadium. The Colts have been a very solid over play at 14-5-1 on the road since 2001. The over (39) looks like the best bet in this one, with the Colts worth consideration getting the points.
• New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-8 1/2): Both teams have been disappointing this season, but remember the Saints won and covered both games last year against the Super Bowl champs. The Bucs are banged up and only 1-2 against the spread at home. After a bad start, the Saints have covered three of four, and they should be the play.
• Washington at Dallas (-4 1/2): Bill Parcells will have his team ready for this game after being shut out last week at Tampa Bay. The Cowboys are 5-2 straight up and against the spread, and I look for that success to continue against a poor Redskins team. Dallas is doing it with defense, allowing only 83 yards a game on the ground.
• Carolina (-6 1/2) at Houston: This will be a tough test for Texans quarterback Tony Banks as he takes over for injured David Carr. Houston has gone over the
total in six of seven games this season and six of the last nine at home. The Panthers' tough defense should be too much for the Texans. Carolina is 8-3 against the spread on the road with John Fox as coach.
• Cincinnati (-3) at Arizona: The Bengals are rare road favorites, something that happens about once every three years. The Cardinals don't have much of a home-field edge, with a 19-33 spread record since 1997. The Bengals have covered five of their last six, including all three games on the road, under new coach Marvin Lewis. The Bengals are the play here.
• Pittsburgh at Seattle (-4 1/2): The Steelers are 13-4-1 against the spread in their last 18 games as underdogs. The Seahawks haven't covered their last five, and coach Mike Holmgren is only 12-21-2 as a favorite with Seattle. Pittsburgh has gone over the total in 22 of their last 31 games. Over the total (44 1/2) seems like the best play here, and the Seahawks might be worth a look.
• Philadelphia (-4 1/2) at Atlanta: Running back Brian Westbrook is out this week for the Eagles, who have been a big disappointment. But the Falcons are 1-6 straight up and against the spread in the midst of a nightmare season with quarterback Michael Vick injured. Atlanta coach Dan Reeves has benched his whole defensive secondary, and Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb could have his breakout game. The Eagles are on an impressive 26-12 streak against the spread on the road.
• St. Louis (-4 1/2) at San Francisco: The Rams have covered their last five games. The 49ers have big problems, starting with the loss of quarterback Jeff Garcia this week. This line has moved from 2 1/2 points and might go as high as 5. It's a tough call, but I like the Rams to get the road victory.
• Green Bay at Minnesota (-4 1/2): Brett Favre heading into a dome spells doom, as he is just 2-9 against the Vikings in the Metrodome. The total has been bet up to 49 but should be more like 55. Green Bay has a weak defense, and the oddsmakers have not been increasing their totals enough this season. The Packers are 21-10 over the total in their last 31 on the road. Take it to go over and watch a shootout.
• New England at Denver (-2 1/2): The Patriots are a solid 14-7-1 against the line as underdogs since 2001. Bill Belichick is up for Coach of the Year as his team has been banged up but sits in first place in the AFC East. I'll take the Patriots and the points. Denver is a tough place to play, but I don't think the Broncos can get it done with a third-string quarterback.
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